I was emailed by Costar for an upcoming article they plan to publish tomorrow. Here are the questions and my responses:
Sorry for the late notice on this one, but I am putting together a story on whether or not the end of the recession is in sight and , if so, is it time to have an exit strategy from the hunkering down that has been on going. There seems to be a growing since that we have weathered the worst of the recession, if not in commercial real estate, than at least in the economy. Would you concur and if so, why; and if not why not?
(My response)The pulse on the commercial real estate market is that the opportunities for investment are in the pipeline and heading towards us. If the economy has turned the corner, we are, at best, another 12-18 months before we see a bottoming of the CRE market. Everything is tied to employment numbers.
And if the bottom is near, what are the opportunities in sight to be sought out this year and next?
(My response)REO opportunities are rising. It will be similar to the RTC days. People chasing notes are the first wave of investors stepping in. Purchasing notes have advantages but some serious disadvantages. What needs to happen is the foreclosures to happen expediently with the understanding that lenders are going to off load the properties just as fast. If there is a stall anywhere along this resetting of the basis, it will only prolong the recovery in commercial real estate.
We will see if my comments make the article tomorrow! Your thoughts are always appreciated!