Following the Apartment Panel was the Economists. Key characters from this group were: Elliot Pollack, Elliot D Pollack Company; John Lucking, Econ-Linc; moderated by John Graham, Sunbelt Holdings.
According to the economists, we are in “recovery” mode. It is just a very slow recovery.
Here are a few of the bullet points:
- Consumers have deleveraged – Wealth Effect is becoming more significant
- Stock Market has recovered – back to the Peak
- Housing has started the recovery process
- Business Balance Sheets are strong but their confidence level is “cautious”
- One number to watch is Employment Growth
What are the Black/Grey/White Swans that could concern the Recovery?
- Currency Wars are a real concern
- Maybe we will get luck and the stimulus will kick in?
- 2013 – the “Groundhog” Year – similar to 2012 in terms of GDP
- Fiscal Cliff
- We lost 234K jobs and have only recovered 96K so far
- Phoenix Metro is 3rd out of 25 for Major Employment markets in USA.
Housing still has a long way to go:
- It is estimated that 22% of the current housing inventory is rentals
- 40-45% of potential buyers are out of the market
- Pent up demand is the age bracket of 25-35 year olds
- Did not anticipate the investor to absorb as much of the Housing as it did
2016 should be the year we would start to see Office construction begin.
- Glass is now ½ FULL
- 2015 will be a good year in Arizona
Overall, Elliot always has a quick wit and entertaining slideshow presentation to talk about sometimes some of the most boring facts. But, they are the facts. If you are there, what did you takeaway?